Flood Forecasting with Uncertainty Using a Fully Automated Flood Model Chain: a Case Study for the City of Kulmbach

10 pages•Published: September 20, 2018

Md Nazmul Azim Beg, Jorge Leandro, Punit Bhola, Iris Konnerth, Kanwal Amin, Florian Koeck, Rita F. Carvalho and Markus Disse

Abstract

Real time flood forecasting can help authorities in providing reliable warnings to the public. This process is, however, non-deterministic such that uncertainty sources need to be accounted before issuing forecasts. In the FloodEvac project, we have developed a tool which takes as inputs rainfall forecasts and links a hydrological with a hydraulic model for producing flood forecasts. The tool is able to handle calibration/validation of the hydrological model (LARSIM) and produces real-time flood forecast with associated uncertainty of flood discharges and flood extents. In this case study, we focus on the linkage with the hydrological model and on the real-time discharge forecasts generated.

Keyphrases: calibration, forecasting, hydrological modelling, uncertainty, validation

In: Goffredo La Loggia, Gabriele Freni, Valeria Puleo and Mauro De Marchis (editors). HIC 2018. 13th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, vol 3, pages 207-216.

Links:	https://easychair.org/publications/paper/d2vl
	https://doi.org/10.29007/jb27

BibTeX entry

@inproceedings{HIC2018:Flood_Forecasting_with_Uncertainty,
  author    = {Md Nazmul Azim Beg and Jorge Leandro and Punit Bhola and Iris Konnerth and Kanwal Amin and Florian Koeck and Rita F. Carvalho and Markus Disse},
  title     = {Flood Forecasting with Uncertainty Using a Fully Automated Flood Model Chain: a Case Study for the City of Kulmbach},
  booktitle = {HIC 2018. 13th International Conference on Hydroinformatics},
  editor    = {Goffredo La Loggia and Gabriele Freni and Valeria Puleo and Mauro De Marchis},
  series    = {EPiC Series in Engineering},
  volume    = {3},
  publisher = {EasyChair},
  bibsource = {EasyChair, https://easychair.org},
  issn      = {2516-2330},
  url       = {/publications/paper/d2vl},
  doi       = {10.29007/jb27},
  pages     = {207-216},
  year      = {2018}}

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