Combined Drug Interventions and its Efficacy in the Reduction of COVID-19 Burden: A Within-Host Modeling Study with Reference to HCQ and BCG Vaccination

EasyChair Preprint 4303

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more than 28.98 million infections and 9, 25, 272 deaths in 212 countries over the last few months. Different drug interventions acting at multiple stages of the pathogenesis of COVID-19 can substantially reduce infection-induced mortality. The current within-host mathematical modeling studies deals with the optimal combined drug intervention strategy and its efficacy in reducing the burden of COVID-19. The drug interventions considered here include Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), the first BCG vaccine dose, and a booster dose of BCG administered at a later stage. In this work, we consider two scenarios involving the administration of these interventions. In the first scenario, we study the efficacy of drug interventions such as HCQ and BCG first dose administered at present. Initially, we study their efficacy when administered individually and, later we study the efficacy of the combined therapy involving the administration of these two interventions HCQ, BCG first dose simultaneously at present. In the second scenario, we assume that the BCG primary dose has been administered at birth to the individual and we study the efficacy of the drug interventions HCQ and BCG booster dose administered either individually or in combination at present. In both these scenarios, the optimal intervention strategy is proposed based on two methods. In the first method, these medical interventions are modeled as control interventions and a corresponding objective function and optimal control problem is formulated and discussed. Later, using the comparative effectiveness method the optimal drug intervention strategy is proposed based on basic reproduction number and viral count.  The findings of these studies may help physicians with decision making in the treatment of life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia.

Keyphrases: BCG Vaccine, COVID-19, Comparative Effectiveness Study, HCQ, basic reproduction number, bcg booster dose, bcg first dose, bcg primary dose, inflammatory mediators, optimal control problem, optimal drug intervention strategy, optimal drug regimen

@booklet{EasyChair:4303,
  author    = {Bishal Chhetri and D K K Vamsi and Bhanu Prakash and Carani B Sanjeevi},
  title     = {Combined Drug Interventions and its Efficacy in the Reduction of COVID-19 Burden: A Within-Host Modeling Study with Reference to  HCQ and BCG Vaccination},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 4303},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2020}}