Analyzing the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in Iraq a Case Study 1968 2019 Using Symmetric and Asymmetric Co Integration Analysis

EasyChair Preprint 14846

Abstract

This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on economic growth in Iraq from 1968 to 2019, employing both symmetric and asymmetric co-integration analysis to understand the nuanced relationships between oil prices and economic performance. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning over five decades, the research identifies and quantifies the long-term equilibrium relationships and dynamic adjustments between oil price fluctuations and Iraq's GDP growth. The symmetric co-integration analysis reveals the overall effect of oil price changes on economic growth, while the asymmetric approach uncovers differential impacts of oil price increases versus decreases. The findings indicate that oil price shocks have a significant and variable effect on Iraq's economy, with asymmetric responses suggesting that the economic growth is more adversely affected by oil price drops compared to the benefits derived from oil price increases. This study contributes to the understanding of how oil-dependent economies can better manage and respond to price volatility in the global oil market.

Keyphrases: Asymmetric Co-Integration, Economic Sensitivity, Iraq, Momentum Threshold Autoregressive Model, Symmetric Co-Integration, Threshold Autoregressive Model

@booklet{EasyChair:14846,
  author    = {Oluwaseun Abiade},
  title     = {Analyzing the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in Iraq a Case Study 1968 2019 Using Symmetric and Asymmetric Co Integration Analysis},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 14846},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2024}}